The Political Point

This posting has been simultaneously posted on my new, second blog, The Political Point (and yes I do have one!). Check it out! Thanks!

I have been watching closely the events leading up to the 2006 midterm elections. Just yesterday, it appeared the Democrats moved one seat closer to taking over the house, when Representative Mark Foley resigned his seat in Congress under allegations he engaged in improper correspondence with a former page. It now looks like democratic challenger Tim Mahoney will take the seat for the Democrats.

But today, I want to look at some of the Senate races around the country. The Republicans are defending 15 seats of their 55. Tennessee is an open seat for the Republicans, with the retirement of Majority Leader Bill Frist. The Democrats have 18 seats of their total 45 to defend, including three open seats, with Paul Sarbanes (MD), Mark Dayton (MN), and Jim Jeffords (VT) retiring.

Let's look at the Republicans first. Most pundits are calling a total of seven seats safe for the Republicans. Dick Lugar in Indiana is running unopposed, and the other six cruising to reelection: Olympia Snowe (ME), Trent Lott (MS), John Ensign (NV), Kay Bailey Hutchinson (TX), Orrin Hatch (UT), and Craig Thomas (WY). Add John Kyl (AZ) to the safe column as he continues to hide in the shadow of John McCain and will easily win reelection.

Of the remaining seven seats, the first to look at is the Commonwealth of Virginia. George Allen, he of the cowboy boots, the confederate flag, and now, the yarmulke, is stumbling through his race against former Reagan Secretary of the Navy, Jim Webb. This race is fun to watch as Allen is hoping his reelection will propel him into a run for the presidency in two years. I think that ship has sailed. I really think that Webb has a chance to send Allen home and this race will tighten in the next few weeks. It's not over. But for now, the edge is Allen's.

In Tennessee, the retirement of Frist has brought the former mayor of Chattanooga, Bob Corker into the race against House Representative Harold Ford. Ford is trying to become the first black senator from the South since Reconstruction. I think he is going to do it. This race has been flying under the radar and it is definitely one to watch. I like Ford over Corker.

The other five seats all look like they could be democratic pickups. In Missouri, Jim Talent looks like he will lose his seat to Democratic challenger, Claire McCaskill. Tune in to Meet the Press next Sunday see these two debate. Mike DeWine is facing an uphill battle against Democratic House member Sherrod Brown and the Republican establishment has abandoned the middle of the road Republican Lincoln Chaffee in Rhode Island after helping him secure the nomination. Expect him to lose to Sheldon Whitehouse. The final two are Pennsylvania (Rick Santorum) and Montana (Conrad Burns). Burns is a surprising loss for the Republicans but expect Jon Tester to become the Junior Senator from Montana. In Pennsylvania, Santorum is way too far right for the democratic Pennsylvania and Bob Casey should be able to partake in the Democratic swell in the state.

This result would give the Democrats the seats they need to be in the majority, a total of 52 seats. But why are the Democrats worried? New Jersey, for one. Jon Corzine, who was elected Governor of New Jersey last year, appointed House Member Robert Menendez to fill out his term. Menendez is now running for a full term of his own. His opponent is Thomas Kean, Jr., the son of the former governor and co-chairman of the 9/11 Commission. Polls in the state are showing the two neck and neck. New Jersey politics are notoriously nasty and this race will most certainly go down to the wire. Watch closely.

Eleven of the seats the Democrats are defending are considered solidly democratic. The Dean of the Senate, Robert Byrd is poised to win another term as the Senior Senator from West Virginia. He will become the longest serving Senator and the oldest Senator at some point in his next term. The other ten contests are: Herb Kohl (WI), Hillary Clinton (NY), Jeff Bingaman (NM), Kent Conrad (ND), Ted Kennedy (MA), Daniel Akaka (HI), Bill Nelson (FL), Tom Carper (DE), Joe Lieberman (CT), and Dianne Feinstein (CA), who are all expected to cruise to victory.

In Vermont, the retirement of Independent Jim Jeffords is giving the opportunity for Socialist Bernie Sanders to run for the Senate. Sanders has pledged to caucus with the Democrats if elected and is expected to win the three way race in Vermont. Three of the other five races are all leaning toward the democratic candidates. In Washington, Maria Cantwell is expected to win reelection. Ben Nelson (NE) and Debbie Stabenow (MI) are also keeping ahead of their Republican opponents.

The final two are open seats for the Democrats. Maryland, where Paul Sarbanes is retiring, pits Congressman Ben Cardin against Lt. Governor Michael Steele, who may or may not like puppies. Steele is expected to do well, particularly with the minority population, but Cardin should emerge victorious in the heavily democratic Maryland. In Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar is facing Congressman Mark Kennedy and Klobuchar should retain the seats for the Democrats from the retiring Mark Dayton.

Gut Check Prediction - today, October 1 - Democrats 52, Republicans 48.